日本棋士国内レーティングの評価(年別)
- 算出したレーティング点数を使用して，ひと月後までに行われた対局の対局者間の点数差と勝率の関係を，理論値と比較した． レーティング点差±3点差までの比較を，対局が行われた年別に示す．
- 評価の対象とした対局は，RD0.35以下同士の対局に限っている．RDが大きい棋士の対局も含めると結果の精度は落ちる(点差以上にレーティング下位者の勝率が落ちる)．
2023年
2022年
2021年
2020年
2019年
2018年
2023年
表1:実際の勝率と期待勝率(2023年)
| R点差(±0.05) | 対局数 | 勝ち数 | 負け数 | 勝率[%] | 期待勝率[%] | R点差(±0.05) | 対局数 | 勝ち数 | 負け数 | 勝率[%] | 期待勝率[%] | R点差(±0.05) | 対局数 | 勝ち数 | 負け数 | 勝率[%] | 期待勝率[%] |
| -2.95 | 2 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 3.8 | -0.95 | 92 | 20.0 | 72.0 | 21.7 | 26.0 | 1.05 | 66 | 55.0 | 11.0 | 83.3 | 76.0 |
| -2.85 | 2 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 4.2 | -0.85 | 80 | 20.0 | 60.0 | 25.0 | 28.2 | 1.15 | 62 | 46.0 | 16.0 | 74.2 | 78.0 |
| -2.75 | 8 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 4.6 | -0.75 | 91 | 28.0 | 63.0 | 30.8 | 30.5 | 1.25 | 57 | 43.0 | 14.0 | 75.4 | 79.8 |
| -2.65 | 6 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 5.2 | -0.65 | 97 | 23.0 | 74.0 | 23.7 | 32.9 | 1.35 | 60 | 50.0 | 10.0 | 83.3 | 81.5 |
| -2.55 | 7 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 5.7 | -0.55 | 100 | 37.0 | 63.0 | 37.0 | 35.3 | 1.45 | 59 | 52.0 | 7.0 | 88.1 | 83.1 |
| -2.45 | 8 | 1.0 | 7.0 | 12.5 | 6.3 | -0.45 | 106 | 33.0 | 73.0 | 31.1 | 37.9 | 1.55 | 42 | 35.0 | 7.0 | 83.3 | 84.6 |
| -2.35 | 16 | 1.0 | 15.0 | 6.2 | 7.0 | -0.35 | 121 | 49.0 | 72.0 | 40.5 | 40.5 | 1.65 | 30 | 21.0 | 9.0 | 70.0 | 86.0 |
| -2.25 | 12 | 0.0 | 12.0 | 0.0 | 7.8 | -0.25 | 144 | 70.0 | 74.0 | 48.6 | 43.2 | 1.75 | 35 | 33.0 | 2.0 | 94.3 | 87.2 |
| -2.15 | 11 | 1.0 | 10.0 | 9.1 | 8.6 | -0.15 | 127 | 54.0 | 73.0 | 42.5 | 45.9 | 1.85 | 30 | 26.0 | 4.0 | 86.7 | 88.4 |
| -2.05 | 27 | 1.0 | 26.0 | 3.7 | 9.5 | -0.05 | 113 | 58.0 | 55.0 | 51.3 | 48.6 | 1.95 | 28 | 26.0 | 2.0 | 92.9 | 89.5 |
| -1.95 | 28 | 2.0 | 26.0 | 7.1 | 10.5 | 0.05 | 113 | 55.0 | 58.0 | 48.7 | 51.4 | 2.05 | 27 | 26.0 | 1.0 | 96.3 | 90.5 |
| -1.85 | 30 | 4.0 | 26.0 | 13.3 | 11.6 | 0.15 | 127 | 73.0 | 54.0 | 57.5 | 54.1 | 2.15 | 11 | 10.0 | 1.0 | 90.9 | 91.4 |
| -1.75 | 35 | 2.0 | 33.0 | 5.7 | 12.8 | 0.25 | 144 | 74.0 | 70.0 | 51.4 | 56.8 | 2.25 | 12 | 12.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | 92.2 |
| -1.65 | 30 | 9.0 | 21.0 | 30.0 | 14.0 | 0.35 | 121 | 72.0 | 49.0 | 59.5 | 59.5 | 2.35 | 16 | 15.0 | 1.0 | 93.8 | 93.0 |
| -1.55 | 42 | 7.0 | 35.0 | 16.7 | 15.4 | 0.45 | 106 | 73.0 | 33.0 | 68.9 | 62.1 | 2.45 | 8 | 7.0 | 1.0 | 87.5 | 93.7 |
| -1.45 | 59 | 7.0 | 52.0 | 11.9 | 16.9 | 0.55 | 100 | 63.0 | 37.0 | 63.0 | 64.7 | 2.55 | 7 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | 94.3 |
| -1.35 | 60 | 10.0 | 50.0 | 16.7 | 18.5 | 0.65 | 97 | 74.0 | 23.0 | 76.3 | 67.1 | 2.65 | 6 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | 94.8 |
| -1.25 | 57 | 14.0 | 43.0 | 24.6 | 20.2 | 0.75 | 91 | 63.0 | 28.0 | 69.2 | 69.5 | 2.75 | 8 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | 95.4 |
| -1.15 | 62 | 16.0 | 46.0 | 25.8 | 22.0 | 0.85 | 80 | 60.0 | 20.0 | 75.0 | 71.8 | 2.85 | 2 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | 95.8 |
| -1.05 | 66 | 11.0 | 55.0 | 16.7 | 24.0 | 0.95 | 92 | 72.0 | 20.0 | 78.3 | 74.0 | 2.95 | 2 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | 96.2 |
2022年
表2:実際の勝率と期待勝率(2022年)
| R点差(±0.05) | 対局数 | 勝ち数 | 負け数 | 勝率[%] | 期待勝率[%] | R点差(±0.05) | 対局数 | 勝ち数 | 負け数 | 勝率[%] | 期待勝率[%] | R点差(±0.05) | 対局数 | 勝ち数 | 負け数 | 勝率[%] | 期待勝率[%] |
| -2.95 | 7 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 3.8 | -0.95 | 164 | 41.0 | 123.0 | 25.0 | 26.0 | 1.05 | 162 | 124.0 | 38.0 | 76.5 | 76.0 |
| -2.85 | 5 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 4.2 | -0.85 | 172 | 47.0 | 125.0 | 27.3 | 28.2 | 1.15 | 127 | 102.0 | 25.0 | 80.3 | 78.0 |
| -2.75 | 11 | 0.0 | 11.0 | 0.0 | 4.6 | -0.75 | 229 | 78.0 | 151.0 | 34.1 | 30.5 | 1.25 | 130 | 102.0 | 28.0 | 78.5 | 79.8 |
| -2.65 | 19 | 0.0 | 19.0 | 0.0 | 5.2 | -0.65 | 210 | 77.0 | 133.0 | 36.7 | 32.9 | 1.35 | 124 | 104.0 | 20.0 | 83.9 | 81.5 |
| -2.55 | 13 | 1.0 | 12.0 | 7.7 | 5.7 | -0.55 | 202 | 75.0 | 127.0 | 37.1 | 35.3 | 1.45 | 79 | 65.0 | 14.0 | 82.3 | 83.1 |
| -2.45 | 20 | 2.0 | 18.0 | 10.0 | 6.3 | -0.45 | 209 | 81.0 | 128.0 | 38.8 | 37.9 | 1.55 | 85 | 70.0 | 15.0 | 82.4 | 84.6 |
| -2.35 | 21 | 0.0 | 21.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | -0.35 | 245 | 92.0 | 153.0 | 37.6 | 40.5 | 1.65 | 70 | 66.0 | 4.0 | 94.3 | 86.0 |
| -2.25 | 31 | 3.0 | 28.0 | 9.7 | 7.8 | -0.25 | 255 | 118.0 | 137.0 | 46.3 | 43.2 | 1.75 | 59 | 53.0 | 6.0 | 89.8 | 87.2 |
| -2.15 | 40 | 2.0 | 38.0 | 5.0 | 8.6 | -0.15 | 261 | 120.0 | 141.0 | 46.0 | 45.9 | 1.85 | 58 | 50.0 | 8.0 | 86.2 | 88.4 |
| -2.05 | 36 | 4.0 | 32.0 | 11.1 | 9.5 | -0.05 | 286 | 133.0 | 153.0 | 46.5 | 48.6 | 1.95 | 43 | 39.0 | 4.0 | 90.7 | 89.5 |
| -1.95 | 43 | 4.0 | 39.0 | 9.3 | 10.5 | 0.05 | 286 | 153.0 | 133.0 | 53.5 | 51.4 | 2.05 | 36 | 32.0 | 4.0 | 88.9 | 90.5 |
| -1.85 | 58 | 8.0 | 50.0 | 13.8 | 11.6 | 0.15 | 261 | 141.0 | 120.0 | 54.0 | 54.1 | 2.15 | 40 | 38.0 | 2.0 | 95.0 | 91.4 |
| -1.75 | 59 | 6.0 | 53.0 | 10.2 | 12.8 | 0.25 | 255 | 137.0 | 118.0 | 53.7 | 56.8 | 2.25 | 31 | 28.0 | 3.0 | 90.3 | 92.2 |
| -1.65 | 70 | 4.0 | 66.0 | 5.7 | 14.0 | 0.35 | 245 | 153.0 | 92.0 | 62.4 | 59.5 | 2.35 | 21 | 21.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | 93.0 |
| -1.55 | 85 | 15.0 | 70.0 | 17.6 | 15.4 | 0.45 | 209 | 128.0 | 81.0 | 61.2 | 62.1 | 2.45 | 20 | 18.0 | 2.0 | 90.0 | 93.7 |
| -1.45 | 79 | 14.0 | 65.0 | 17.7 | 16.9 | 0.55 | 202 | 127.0 | 75.0 | 62.9 | 64.7 | 2.55 | 13 | 12.0 | 1.0 | 92.3 | 94.3 |
| -1.35 | 124 | 20.0 | 104.0 | 16.1 | 18.5 | 0.65 | 210 | 133.0 | 77.0 | 63.3 | 67.1 | 2.65 | 19 | 19.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | 94.8 |
| -1.25 | 130 | 28.0 | 102.0 | 21.5 | 20.2 | 0.75 | 229 | 151.0 | 78.0 | 65.9 | 69.5 | 2.75 | 11 | 11.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | 95.4 |
| -1.15 | 127 | 25.0 | 102.0 | 19.7 | 22.0 | 0.85 | 172 | 125.0 | 47.0 | 72.7 | 71.8 | 2.85 | 5 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | 95.8 |
| -1.05 | 162 | 38.0 | 124.0 | 23.5 | 24.0 | 0.95 | 164 | 123.0 | 41.0 | 75.0 | 74.0 | 2.95 | 7 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | 96.2 |
2021年
表3:実際の勝率と期待勝率(2021年)
| R点差(±0.05) | 対局数 | 勝ち数 | 負け数 | 勝率[%] | 期待勝率[%] | R点差(±0.05) | 対局数 | 勝ち数 | 負け数 | 勝率[%] | 期待勝率[%] | R点差(±0.05) | 対局数 | 勝ち数 | 負け数 | 勝率[%] | 期待勝率[%] |
| -2.95 | 4 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 25.0 | 3.8 | -0.95 | 116 | 29.0 | 87.0 | 25.0 | 26.0 | 1.05 | 137 | 106.0 | 31.0 | 77.4 | 76.0 |
| -2.85 | 2 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 4.2 | -0.85 | 143 | 47.0 | 96.0 | 32.9 | 28.2 | 1.15 | 121 | 98.0 | 23.0 | 81.0 | 78.0 |
| -2.75 | 11 | 1.0 | 10.0 | 9.1 | 4.6 | -0.75 | 168 | 52.0 | 116.0 | 31.0 | 30.5 | 1.25 | 73 | 65.0 | 8.0 | 89.0 | 79.8 |
| -2.65 | 9 | 1.0 | 8.0 | 11.1 | 5.2 | -0.65 | 190 | 64.0 | 126.0 | 33.7 | 32.9 | 1.35 | 82 | 68.0 | 14.0 | 82.9 | 81.5 |
| -2.55 | 16 | 1.0 | 15.0 | 6.2 | 5.7 | -0.55 | 197 | 84.0 | 113.0 | 42.6 | 35.3 | 1.45 | 77 | 66.0 | 11.0 | 85.7 | 83.1 |
| -2.45 | 16 | 0.0 | 16.0 | 0.0 | 6.3 | -0.45 | 195 | 76.0 | 119.0 | 39.0 | 37.9 | 1.55 | 71 | 59.0 | 12.0 | 83.1 | 84.6 |
| -2.35 | 14 | 0.0 | 14.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | -0.35 | 236 | 93.0 | 143.0 | 39.4 | 40.5 | 1.65 | 75 | 61.0 | 14.0 | 81.3 | 86.0 |
| -2.25 | 30 | 3.0 | 27.0 | 10.0 | 7.8 | -0.25 | 214 | 88.0 | 126.0 | 41.1 | 43.2 | 1.75 | 54 | 46.0 | 8.0 | 85.2 | 87.2 |
| -2.15 | 26 | 0.0 | 26.0 | 0.0 | 8.6 | -0.15 | 207 | 87.0 | 120.0 | 42.0 | 45.9 | 1.85 | 46 | 36.0 | 10.0 | 78.3 | 88.4 |
| -2.05 | 24 | 2.0 | 22.0 | 8.3 | 9.5 | -0.05 | 222 | 103.0 | 119.0 | 46.4 | 48.6 | 1.95 | 42 | 40.0 | 2.0 | 95.2 | 89.5 |
| -1.95 | 42 | 2.0 | 40.0 | 4.8 | 10.5 | 0.05 | 222 | 119.0 | 103.0 | 53.6 | 51.4 | 2.05 | 24 | 22.0 | 2.0 | 91.7 | 90.5 |
| -1.85 | 46 | 10.0 | 36.0 | 21.7 | 11.6 | 0.15 | 207 | 120.0 | 87.0 | 58.0 | 54.1 | 2.15 | 26 | 26.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | 91.4 |
| -1.75 | 54 | 8.0 | 46.0 | 14.8 | 12.8 | 0.25 | 214 | 126.0 | 88.0 | 58.9 | 56.8 | 2.25 | 30 | 27.0 | 3.0 | 90.0 | 92.2 |
| -1.65 | 75 | 14.0 | 61.0 | 18.7 | 14.0 | 0.35 | 236 | 143.0 | 93.0 | 60.6 | 59.5 | 2.35 | 14 | 14.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | 93.0 |
| -1.55 | 71 | 12.0 | 59.0 | 16.9 | 15.4 | 0.45 | 195 | 119.0 | 76.0 | 61.0 | 62.1 | 2.45 | 16 | 16.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | 93.7 |
| -1.45 | 77 | 11.0 | 66.0 | 14.3 | 16.9 | 0.55 | 197 | 113.0 | 84.0 | 57.4 | 64.7 | 2.55 | 16 | 15.0 | 1.0 | 93.8 | 94.3 |
| -1.35 | 82 | 14.0 | 68.0 | 17.1 | 18.5 | 0.65 | 190 | 126.0 | 64.0 | 66.3 | 67.1 | 2.65 | 9 | 8.0 | 1.0 | 88.9 | 94.8 |
| -1.25 | 73 | 8.0 | 65.0 | 11.0 | 20.2 | 0.75 | 168 | 116.0 | 52.0 | 69.0 | 69.5 | 2.75 | 11 | 10.0 | 1.0 | 90.9 | 95.4 |
| -1.15 | 121 | 23.0 | 98.0 | 19.0 | 22.0 | 0.85 | 143 | 96.0 | 47.0 | 67.1 | 71.8 | 2.85 | 2 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | 95.8 |
| -1.05 | 137 | 31.0 | 106.0 | 22.6 | 24.0 | 0.95 | 116 | 87.0 | 29.0 | 75.0 | 74.0 | 2.95 | 4 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 75.0 | 96.2 |
2020年
表4:実際の勝率と期待勝率(2020年)
| R点差(±0.05) | 対局数 | 勝ち数 | 負け数 | 勝率[%] | 期待勝率[%] | R点差(±0.05) | 対局数 | 勝ち数 | 負け数 | 勝率[%] | 期待勝率[%] | R点差(±0.05) | 対局数 | 勝ち数 | 負け数 | 勝率[%] | 期待勝率[%] |
| -2.95 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 0.0 | 3.8 | -0.95 | 135 | 38 | 97 | 28.1 | 26.0 | 1.05 | 122 | 88 | 34 | 72.1 | 76.0 |
| -2.85 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 0.0 | 4.2 | -0.85 | 128 | 42 | 86 | 32.8 | 28.2 | 1.15 | 118 | 85 | 33 | 72.0 | 78.0 |
| -2.75 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0.0 | 4.6 | -0.75 | 148 | 39 | 109 | 26.4 | 30.5 | 1.25 | 98 | 82 | 16 | 83.7 | 79.8 |
| -2.65 | 9 | 0 | 9 | 0.0 | 5.2 | -0.65 | 155 | 55 | 100 | 35.5 | 32.9 | 1.35 | 78 | 66 | 12 | 84.6 | 81.5 |
| -2.55 | 14 | 0 | 14 | 0.0 | 5.7 | -0.55 | 155 | 68 | 87 | 43.9 | 35.3 | 1.45 | 77 | 66 | 11 | 85.7 | 83.1 |
| -2.45 | 8 | 0 | 8 | 0.0 | 6.3 | -0.45 | 203 | 70 | 133 | 34.5 | 37.9 | 1.55 | 52 | 41 | 11 | 78.8 | 84.6 |
| -2.35 | 16 | 0 | 16 | 0.0 | 7.0 | -0.35 | 202 | 78 | 124 | 38.6 | 40.5 | 1.65 | 52 | 47 | 5 | 90.4 | 86.0 |
| -2.25 | 22 | 1 | 21 | 4.5 | 7.8 | -0.25 | 213 | 93 | 120 | 43.7 | 43.2 | 1.75 | 52 | 50 | 2 | 96.2 | 87.2 |
| -2.15 | 14 | 0 | 14 | 0.0 | 8.6 | -0.15 | 209 | 82 | 127 | 39.2 | 45.9 | 1.85 | 41 | 38 | 3 | 92.7 | 88.4 |
| -2.05 | 24 | 2 | 22 | 8.3 | 9.5 | -0.05 | 220 | 101 | 119 | 45.9 | 48.6 | 1.95 | 34 | 32 | 2 | 94.1 | 89.5 |
| -1.95 | 34 | 2 | 32 | 5.9 | 10.5 | 0.05 | 220 | 119 | 101 | 54.1 | 51.4 | 2.05 | 24 | 22 | 2 | 91.7 | 90.5 |
| -1.85 | 41 | 3 | 38 | 7.3 | 11.6 | 0.15 | 209 | 127 | 82 | 60.8 | 54.1 | 2.15 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 100.0 | 91.4 |
| -1.75 | 52 | 2 | 50 | 3.8 | 12.8 | 0.25 | 213 | 120 | 93 | 56.3 | 56.8 | 2.25 | 22 | 21 | 1 | 95.5 | 92.2 |
| -1.65 | 52 | 5 | 47 | 9.6 | 14.0 | 0.35 | 202 | 124 | 78 | 61.4 | 59.5 | 2.35 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 100.0 | 93.0 |
| -1.55 | 52 | 11 | 41 | 21.2 | 15.4 | 0.45 | 203 | 133 | 70 | 65.5 | 62.1 | 2.45 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 100.0 | 93.7 |
| -1.45 | 77 | 11 | 66 | 14.3 | 16.9 | 0.55 | 155 | 87 | 68 | 56.1 | 64.7 | 2.55 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 100.0 | 94.3 |
| -1.35 | 78 | 12 | 66 | 15.4 | 18.5 | 0.65 | 155 | 100 | 55 | 64.5 | 67.1 | 2.65 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 100.0 | 94.8 |
| -1.25 | 98 | 16 | 82 | 16.3 | 20.2 | 0.75 | 148 | 109 | 39 | 73.6 | 69.5 | 2.75 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 100.0 | 95.4 |
| -1.15 | 118 | 33 | 85 | 28.0 | 22.0 | 0.85 | 128 | 86 | 42 | 67.2 | 71.8 | 2.85 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 100.0 | 95.8 |
| -1.05 | 122 | 34 | 88 | 27.9 | 24.0 | 0.95 | 135 | 97 | 38 | 71.9 | 74.0 | 2.95 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 100.0 | 96.2 |
2019年
表5:実際の勝率と期待勝率(2019年)
| R点差(±0.05) | 対局数 | 勝ち数 | 負け数 | 勝率[%] | 期待勝率[%] | R点差(±0.05) | 対局数 | 勝ち数 | 負け数 | 勝率[%] | 期待勝率[%] | R点差(±0.05) | 対局数 | 勝ち数 | 負け数 | 勝率[%] | 期待勝率[%] |
| -2.95 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0.0 | 3.8 | -0.95 | 157 | 43 | 114 | 27.4 | 26.0 | 1.05 | 142 | 114 | 28 | 80.3 | 76.0 |
| -2.85 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0.0 | 4.2 | -0.85 | 189 | 52 | 137 | 27.5 | 28.2 | 1.15 | 157 | 129 | 28 | 82.2 | 78.0 |
| -2.75 | 9 | 0 | 9 | 0.0 | 4.6 | -0.75 | 183 | 52 | 131 | 28.4 | 30.5 | 1.25 | 115 | 98 | 17 | 85.2 | 79.8 |
| -2.65 | 10 | 0 | 10 | 0.0 | 5.2 | -0.65 | 200 | 73 | 127 | 36.5 | 32.9 | 1.35 | 110 | 92 | 18 | 83.6 | 81.5 |
| -2.55 | 17 | 2 | 15 | 11.8 | 5.7 | -0.55 | 253 | 76 | 177 | 30.0 | 35.3 | 1.45 | 110 | 90 | 20 | 81.8 | 83.1 |
| -2.45 | 16 | 0 | 16 | 0.0 | 6.3 | -0.45 | 223 | 92 | 131 | 41.3 | 37.9 | 1.55 | 73 | 62 | 11 | 84.9 | 84.6 |
| -2.35 | 25 | 1 | 24 | 4.0 | 7.0 | -0.35 | 246 | 105 | 141 | 42.7 | 40.5 | 1.65 | 67 | 62 | 5 | 92.5 | 86.0 |
| -2.25 | 15 | 2 | 13 | 13.3 | 7.8 | -0.25 | 268 | 115 | 153 | 42.9 | 43.2 | 1.75 | 72 | 61 | 11 | 84.7 | 87.2 |
| -2.15 | 30 | 3 | 27 | 10.0 | 8.6 | -0.15 | 242 | 108 | 134 | 44.6 | 45.9 | 1.85 | 62 | 57 | 5 | 91.9 | 88.4 |
| -2.05 | 44 | 4 | 40 | 9.1 | 9.5 | -0.05 | 249 | 127 | 122 | 51.0 | 48.6 | 1.95 | 50 | 45 | 5 | 90.0 | 89.5 |
| -1.95 | 50 | 5 | 45 | 10.0 | 10.5 | 0.05 | 249 | 122 | 127 | 49.0 | 51.4 | 2.05 | 44 | 40 | 4 | 90.9 | 90.5 |
| -1.85 | 62 | 5 | 57 | 8.1 | 11.6 | 0.15 | 242 | 134 | 108 | 55.4 | 54.1 | 2.15 | 30 | 27 | 3 | 90.0 | 91.4 |
| -1.75 | 72 | 11 | 61 | 15.3 | 12.8 | 0.25 | 268 | 153 | 115 | 57.1 | 56.8 | 2.25 | 15 | 13 | 2 | 86.7 | 92.2 |
| -1.65 | 67 | 5 | 62 | 7.5 | 14.0 | 0.35 | 246 | 141 | 105 | 57.3 | 59.5 | 2.35 | 25 | 24 | 1 | 96.0 | 93.0 |
| -1.55 | 73 | 11 | 62 | 15.1 | 15.4 | 0.45 | 223 | 131 | 92 | 58.7 | 62.1 | 2.45 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 100.0 | 93.7 |
| -1.45 | 110 | 20 | 90 | 18.2 | 16.9 | 0.55 | 253 | 177 | 76 | 70.0 | 64.7 | 2.55 | 17 | 15 | 2 | 88.2 | 94.3 |
| -1.35 | 110 | 18 | 92 | 16.4 | 18.5 | 0.65 | 200 | 127 | 73 | 63.5 | 67.1 | 2.65 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 100.0 | 94.8 |
| -1.25 | 115 | 17 | 98 | 14.8 | 20.2 | 0.75 | 183 | 131 | 52 | 71.6 | 69.5 | 2.75 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 100.0 | 95.4 |
| -1.15 | 157 | 28 | 129 | 17.8 | 22.0 | 0.85 | 189 | 137 | 52 | 72.5 | 71.8 | 2.85 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 100.0 | 95.8 |
| -1.05 | 142 | 28 | 114 | 19.7 | 24.0 | 0.95 | 157 | 114 | 43 | 72.6 | 74.0 | 2.95 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100.0 | 96.2 |
2018年
表6:実際の勝率と期待勝率(2018年)
| R点差(±0.05) | 対局数 | 勝ち数 | 負け数 | 勝率[%] | 期待勝率[%] | R点差(±0.05) | 対局数 | 勝ち数 | 負け数 | 勝率[%] | 期待勝率[%] | R点差(±0.05) | 対局数 | 勝ち数 | 負け数 | 勝率[%] | 期待勝率[%] |
| -2.95 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0.0 | 3.8 | -0.95 | 147 | 42 | 105 | 28.6 | 26.0 | 1.05 | 142 | 110 | 32 | 77.5 | 76.0 |
| -2.85 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0.0 | 4.2 | -0.85 | 178 | 44 | 134 | 24.7 | 28.2 | 1.15 | 138 | 108 | 30 | 78.3 | 78.0 |
| -2.75 | 11 | 0 | 11 | 0.0 | 4.6 | -0.75 | 191 | 65 | 126 | 34.0 | 30.5 | 1.25 | 108 | 92 | 16 | 85.2 | 79.8 |
| -2.65 | 9 | 0 | 9 | 0.0 | 5.2 | -0.65 | 204 | 64 | 140 | 31.4 | 32.9 | 1.35 | 110 | 94 | 16 | 85.5 | 81.5 |
| -2.55 | 12 | 0 | 12 | 0.0 | 5.7 | -0.55 | 220 | 79 | 141 | 35.9 | 35.3 | 1.45 | 100 | 86 | 14 | 86.0 | 83.1 |
| -2.45 | 18 | 1 | 17 | 5.6 | 6.3 | -0.45 | 217 | 80 | 137 | 36.9 | 37.9 | 1.55 | 94 | 80 | 14 | 85.1 | 84.6 |
| -2.35 | 17 | 0 | 17 | 0.0 | 7.0 | -0.35 | 241 | 101 | 140 | 41.9 | 40.5 | 1.65 | 72 | 64 | 8 | 88.9 | 86.0 |
| -2.25 | 25 | 2 | 23 | 8.0 | 7.8 | -0.25 | 263 | 117 | 146 | 44.5 | 43.2 | 1.75 | 62 | 52 | 10 | 83.9 | 87.2 |
| -2.15 | 29 | 1 | 28 | 3.4 | 8.6 | -0.15 | 257 | 118 | 139 | 45.9 | 45.9 | 1.85 | 55 | 49 | 6 | 89.1 | 88.4 |
| -2.05 | 45 | 5 | 40 | 11.1 | 9.5 | -0.05 | 262 | 133 | 129 | 50.8 | 48.6 | 1.95 | 43 | 41 | 2 | 95.3 | 89.5 |
| -1.95 | 43 | 2 | 41 | 4.7 | 10.5 | 0.05 | 262 | 129 | 133 | 49.2 | 51.4 | 2.05 | 45 | 40 | 5 | 88.9 | 90.5 |
| -1.85 | 55 | 6 | 49 | 10.9 | 11.6 | 0.15 | 257 | 139 | 118 | 54.1 | 54.1 | 2.15 | 29 | 28 | 1 | 96.6 | 91.4 |
| -1.75 | 62 | 10 | 52 | 16.1 | 12.8 | 0.25 | 263 | 146 | 117 | 55.5 | 56.8 | 2.25 | 25 | 23 | 2 | 92.0 | 92.2 |
| -1.65 | 72 | 8 | 64 | 11.1 | 14.0 | 0.35 | 241 | 140 | 101 | 58.1 | 59.5 | 2.35 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 100.0 | 93.0 |
| -1.55 | 94 | 14 | 80 | 14.9 | 15.4 | 0.45 | 217 | 137 | 80 | 63.1 | 62.1 | 2.45 | 18 | 17 | 1 | 94.4 | 93.7 |
| -1.45 | 100 | 14 | 86 | 14.0 | 16.9 | 0.55 | 220 | 141 | 79 | 64.1 | 64.7 | 2.55 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 100.0 | 94.3 |
| -1.35 | 110 | 16 | 94 | 14.5 | 18.5 | 0.65 | 204 | 140 | 64 | 68.6 | 67.1 | 2.65 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 100.0 | 94.8 |
| -1.25 | 108 | 16 | 92 | 14.8 | 20.2 | 0.75 | 191 | 126 | 65 | 66.0 | 69.5 | 2.75 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 100.0 | 95.4 |
| -1.15 | 138 | 30 | 108 | 21.7 | 22.0 | 0.85 | 178 | 134 | 44 | 75.3 | 71.8 | 2.85 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 100.0 | 95.8 |
| -1.05 | 142 | 32 | 110 | 22.5 | 24.0 | 0.95 | 147 | 105 | 42 | 71.4 | 74.0 | 2.95 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 100.0 | 96.2 |
